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Uncertainty in Greece pushes the euro lower
09/05/2012
Morning Comment
Current mid-market inter-bank spot rates (as at 08:00 GMT)
Major sterling
|
£-usd
|
1.6145
|
£-eur
|
1.2430
|
€-gbp
|
0.8043
|
|
£-jpy
|
128.80
|
£-chf
|
1.4930
|
|
|
Major US$
|
eur-$
|
1.2988
|
$-eur
|
0.7699
|
Sterling emigrate
|
£-aud
|
1.6005
|
£-nzd
|
2.0520
|
|
£-cad
|
1.6150
|
£-zar
|
12.76
|
Other sterling
|
£-dkk
|
9.2440
|
£-sek
|
11.0840
|
£-pln
|
5.2340
|
|
£-trl
|
2.8715
|
£-hrk
|
9.3345
|
£-sgd
|
2.0160
|
|
£-aed
|
5.9290
|
£-thb
|
50.08
|
£-bgl
|
2.4310
|
|
£-brl
|
3.1310
|
|
|||
Euro crosses
|
€-brl
|
2.5190
|
€-aed
|
4.7700
|
€-trl
|
2.3100
|
|
€-hrk
|
7.5095
|
|
|||
|
|
Current Price
|
2012 open
|
YTD change
|
Month Open
|
MTD change
|
2011 change
|
|
£-usd
|
1.6145
|
1.5501
|
+4.2%
|
1.6234
|
-0.5%
|
-0.4%
|
|
£-eur
|
1.2430
|
1.1978
|
+3.8%
|
1.2261
|
+1.4%
|
+2.7%
|
|
£-chf
|
1.4930
|
1.4552
|
+2.6%
|
1.4731
|
+1.4%
|
+0.0%
|
|
£-jpy
|
128.80
|
119.31
|
+8.0%
|
129.58
|
-0.6%
|
-5.7%
|
|
£-aud
|
1.6005
|
1.5169
|
+5.5%
|
1.5566
|
+2.8%
|
-0.6%
|
|
£-cad
|
1.6150
|
1.5830
|
+2.0%
|
1.6026
|
+0.8%
|
+2.2%
|
|
eur-$
|
1.2988
|
1.2941
|
+0.4%
|
1.3240
|
-1.9%
|
-3.0%
|
Data / Events due today
|
Time
(bst)
|
Country
|
Data/Event
|
Period
|
Consensus
|
|
15:00
|
US
|
Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks
|
|
|
|
15:00
|
US
|
Wholesale Inventories
|
Mar
|
+0.6%
|
Fundamental
Very little action in yesterday’s morning session with the only notable data release being German industrial production. Production was up 2.8% in March, well above the 0.8% increase forecast but reaction was muted. Greece remains a thorn in the side of the Eurozone with Syriza (surprise second placed in the weekend election) leader Tsipras saying the recently agreed €130bn bailout is null and void. A Greek exit from the Eurozone remains a possibility but it is more the uncertainty this would create together with fears of contagion rather than the potential event itself which is undermining the euro.
Otherwise, risk appetite remained weak helping the US dollar higher over the course of the day while gold has notably broken below a 3 ½ year bull trendline and equities lost further ground.
UK like-for-like sales released by the BRC overnight disappointed. Wet weather was blamed on the 3.3% slump, the worst performance since March last year.
Ahead today, there is nothing on the calendar of note leaving financial markets to focus on risk trends in general and tomorrow’s Bank of England MPC meeting.
Technical
£-usd
The pound has been contained to a less than half cent range over the last 24 hours leaving 1.6110/00 as the important near term support level. Below here suggests the pullback from last Monday’s high extends further with 1.6050, 1.6000 and the 4-month trendline at 1.5980 the next targets. Resistance for today more or less unchanged at 1.6190/1.6210, 1.6230, 1.6260 and 1.6300/25.
£-eur
Weakness yesterday was contained by the former high from June 2010 at 1.2395 and we have pushed up to test recent highs again in overnight trade. This keeps the psychological 1.2500 level in focus for bulls which in turn is the gateway to 1.2750. Support today at 1.2395, 1.2350, 1.2280 and 1.2180/60.
Analysis of further currency pairs, forward contract pricing, and information on limit or stop loss orders is available at any time on request.
Telephone 0131 476 7371
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